Jacques Attali Breve Historia Del Futuro Pdf

Very interesting review of history. The premise is that human civilization continues to march toward greater openness in market/capitalism and in freedom. With the rise of the renaissance, there have been a rise and fall of leading cities in this area. As one falters, another rises - Bruges, Venice, Antwerp, Genoa, Amserdam, London, Boston, New York, and LA. Much of this is based on Turner's work on Great Cities - must be centers of trade, be innovators, and welcome immigrants. With this history Very interesting review of history. The premise is that human civilization continues to march toward greater openness in market/capitalism and in freedom.

1. Historia Del Futuro Tv
2. Jacques Attali Breve Historia Del Futuro Pdf Completo
3. Jacques Attali Breve Historia Del Futuro Pdf Gratis

With the rise of the renaissance, there have been a rise and fall of leading cities in this area. As one falters, another rises - Bruges, Venice, Antwerp, Genoa, Amserdam, London, Boston, New York, and LA. Much of this is based on Turner's work on Great Cities - must be centers of trade, be innovators, and welcome immigrants. With this history in place, what happens in the future? What will be the next center of innovation?

He reviews the leading candidates and discounts them all - China - will be splintered by different ethnicities and still has far to go with GDP growth to catch up with the west (same as Z. Farrad's book Post-American Century.) Japan is not open to immigation and had its opportunity in the 1980s and did not ascend. India - still not much of a market (too much government control). Europe is not an innovator or strong growth.

Australia is very innovative and open to immigration, but too small at 6M citizens. Texas and San Jose are options. The next city to ascend will probably be virtual. In the future, creative work will rule the economy.

However, the USA will start to falter, but not fall. Taxes, defense budgets, and CO2 will cause America to lose its sole role as Superpower. But a lot of chaos in the future - rise of pirates (he includes terrorists as pirates), more failed states, more mercenaries, less regular armies. He predicts more wars that lead to a pan-global government. I like the whole book, but the author lost me at the end - way too European for my American outlook on the world. I do not share his optimism on our ability to have a global government - but I do see a much higher acceptance of this as I look at younger generations.

Historia Del Futuro Tv

De ceva timp, am inceput sa citesc si carti de non-fictiune. Imi place foarte mult sa citesc aceste previziuni despre viitor si daca ele se apropie cat de cat de viziunea mea.Cartea lui Attali este, cred, cea mai realista.Desi nu vorbeste indeajuns de mult despre tehnologie si nu ii maximizeaza rolul - orice istoric trebuie sa maximizeze rolul tehnologiei, ea fiind ceva sine qua non, unde viitorul este ori supertehnologizat, ori deloc - cred ca multe dintre ideile lui se aplica si se vor De ceva timp, am inceput sa citesc si carti de non-fictiune.

Imi place foarte mult sa citesc aceste previziuni despre viitor si daca ele se apropie cat de cat de viziunea mea.Cartea lui Attali este, cred, cea mai realista.Desi nu vorbeste indeajuns de mult despre tehnologie si nu ii maximizeaza rolul - orice istoric trebuie sa maximizeze rolul tehnologiei, ea fiind ceva sine qua non, unde viitorul este ori supertehnologizat, ori deloc - cred ca multe dintre ideile lui se aplica si se vor intampla.Interesanta si 'etapizarea' din istoria capitalismului.Capitolul despre Romania este fad. Amalgam de vorbe, dar care, fe dapt, nu spun nimic. This highly speculative tale of things to come begins with a brief overview of where we've been. I was put off by an obvious error on page 7 which states that all primates other than Homo sapiens sapiens vanished from Earth 30,000 years ago. Although some species of apes, monkeys, and lemurs are endangered, many are still with us, so obviously they did not vanish. The mistake may have been due to a translation error (from the original French) because the word 'primate' is used several times in This highly speculative tale of things to come begins with a brief overview of where we've been.

I was put off by an obvious error on page 7 which states that all primates other than Homo sapiens sapiens vanished from Earth 30,000 years ago. Although some species of apes, monkeys, and lemurs are endangered, many are still with us, so obviously they did not vanish.

The mistake may have been due to a translation error (from the original French) because the word 'primate' is used several times in places in which 'human' would have been a better choice. There were other questionable word choices including 'freedom', 'democracy', and 'fair' in the early pages of this book. From there it goes on to relate various paths humanity might take.often to extremes (actually to the point of falling off a metaphorical cliff). Some I thought fairly plausible.up to a point, but others seemed extremely unlikely to me. Still, they provide warnings of things to avoid.

One that did make me pause was the prediction that public services might, in the near future, be privatized, effectively leaving nation states impotent to mitigate the excesses of profit-seeking corporations. What we think of as public services today (social security, unemployment protection, education, health care, workplace safety, food and drug standards, even law enforcement and courts) would be taken over by profit-seeking private insurance companies that would monitor everything (really EVERYTHING) people do and adjust their premiums accordingly. Possible, but I have to believe that we'll be wise enough to avoid such a dystopian future (which sounds to me something like cutthroat corporate feudalism).

The final chapter is utopian, in which people suddenly and inexplicably become rational and altruistic. That would be nice, but it doesn't explain how we get there from here, especially considering the dire predictions it makes earlier.As a cautionary tale, this book has value. As a prediction of the future, not so much. I have no doubt that humanity will face many of the challenges this book describes, and no doubt we'll handle some of them better than others, but I have to believe that we will handle them before they lead to the extreme outcomes described here. This book was recommended to me by a political scientist friend. Starting with a recap of human history, focusing on the history of capitalism, it identifies trends and extrapolates these trends 100 years in the future.

Predicted is an age in which the (American) empire of predatory capitalism extends to the point of near destruction of the world, followed by a time of many different wars and collapse, followed by a time in which the hell of unfettered markets and hatreds leads nongovernmental This book was recommended to me by a political scientist friend. Starting with a recap of human history, focusing on the history of capitalism, it identifies trends and extrapolates these trends 100 years in the future. Predicted is an age in which the (American) empire of predatory capitalism extends to the point of near destruction of the world, followed by a time of many different wars and collapse, followed by a time in which the hell of unfettered markets and hatreds leads nongovernmental organizations (relational enterprises) to bring about a world based on altruism and mutual caring.The style is lecture: one sentence after another of future prediction, interrupted only occasionally by historical tidbits and data meant to support the point. The range is global-the entire world is encompassed.My major problem with Attali's predictions is his timeline. He pegs 2050 as the time when unfettered markets will lead the world to economic collapse. He mentions ecological devastation, and does indeed impart it's worsening to capitalism entities-actually 'nomadic' entities-globalized capitalism that owes allegiance to no one state, but he doesn't give it enough weight.

We have passed many turning points on global environmental destruction. The world doesn't have until 2050. His prediction that the US and Europe will look like today's Africa as they collapse is probably correct, but it's too delayed. If ocean acidification collapses coral reef ecosystems-that's the end of Thailand and the Philippines as viable countries.

Sea level rise will devastate Bangladesh, Indonesia, etc. Desertification will lead to even further chaos in much of Africa. And that's just scratching the surface.We've already had financial meltdown, and the world didn't collapse.

The surveillance state is here, but I don't feel I'm living in an Orwellian dystopia. Piracy, Islamic fundamentalism-all these things are happening. But in my eyes, the environmental issues will be the most disruptive.As for whether humans will see their folly, hmm. Not really sure.Anyway, the book was quite interesting and worth reading. I don't think any of the individual ideas were shocking, but the totality of the picture painted is a worthy jumping off point for discussion. The author goes all out in his futurist view in this book, pretty brave for a person with many responsibilities and reputation to consider.

I like his approach in leading you from the basics of history, so you can naturally integrate the future as a part of the continual history.It takes the myth out of futurism, which I think is the point of this book.I do think he's a bit romantic in the things he choose to feature, although his history lesson is so matter-of-fact. There is a human-ness about The author goes all out in his futurist view in this book, pretty brave for a person with many responsibilities and reputation to consider. I like his approach in leading you from the basics of history, so you can naturally integrate the future as a part of the continual history.It takes the myth out of futurism, which I think is the point of this book.I do think he's a bit romantic in the things he choose to feature, although his history lesson is so matter-of-fact. There is a human-ness about Jacques Attali that I enjoy reading him over other dry econo-political books.This book lets you see the current of econo-political history in a long range, taming the emotional reaction of people who want to believe that this way of life will last forever.I LOVE LOVE LOVE the last chapter. If you have 15 minutes at a bookstore just reading the chapter 'Third Wave of the Future' is worth it. Tl;drThe book hypothesizes that 'merchant order' went through nine successive geographical 'cores' associated with a characteristic technology.

The core cities were:Bruges with the central rudder stockVenice with the caravelAntwerp with printingGenoa and accountingAmsterdam with the fluytLondon and the steam engineBoston and the automobilesNew York City with the electricityLos Angeles and the microchipHe guesses that next core city will still be in California perhaps San Diego.The hyperempire, tl;drThe book hypothesizes that 'merchant order' went through nine successive geographical 'cores' associated with a characteristic technology. The core cities were:Bruges with the central rudder stockVenice with the caravelAntwerp with printingGenoa and accountingAmsterdam with the fluytLondon and the steam engineBoston and the automobilesNew York City with the electricityLos Angeles and the microchipHe guesses that next core city will still be in California perhaps San Diego.The hyperempire, the hyperconflict and hyperdemocracy—will take over the world one after the other.He estimates before the 9th form US Empire will collapse which would take around 2035. Financially and politically exhausted, like other empires before it, the US will cease to rule the world. This doesn’t mean US not exists.

Jacques Attali Breve Historia Del Futuro Pdf Completo

It means it won’’t be the Empire it is today. Other countries will have similar powers to US such as Brazil, Mexico, China, India, Russia, the European Union, Egypt and Nigeria. The world will be polycentricThis polycentric world will consume worlds resources in such a sense to please the markets that they’ll destroy worlds ecology.

American Capitalism in it’s highest form in all countries will create fortunes and extreme poverty. Money will trample everything in its path, including even the United States, which it will destroy gradually. Having become the sole law controlling the world, the market will establish what he calls it a hyperempire, creating both unfathomable wealth and suffering on a global scale, fortunes as well as extreme poverty; nature will be exploited and despoiled in a systematic matter; everything will be privatized, including the army, the police and the judicial system. Terrorist factions and pirates will roam the globe. He calls such a war a hyperconflict.He guesses that if the world still continues after this point, there will be organisations and companies, cultures and habits which are more eco-friendly. He says that hyperdemocracy, a superior method of organizing mankind, will triumph around 2060, and, as the ultimate expression of freedom, it will become the driving force for history. A new economy, called a relational economy, producing non-profit services, will compete with the market before eliminating it, just as the market put an end to feudalism a few centuries ago.

During this period, the market and democracy, which are not as distant as they are believed to be in the sense they are understood today, will become outdated concepts, vague memories. I bought this book on a whim a year ago, having spied it on the shelves of one of my favourite bookstores, Diabolik. I thought I’d better read it before the future arrived, not realizing that it had been published in 2006! I’ve long been a sucker for any kind of media that attempted to forecast what the future may be like. We do seem to be on the cusp of massive changes on this planet, but just what will they be? Will it is be dystopia or utopia for humanity?

Typically the future will probably I bought this book on a whim a year ago, having spied it on the shelves of one of my favourite bookstores, Diabolik. I thought I’d better read it before the future arrived, not realizing that it had been published in 2006! I’ve long been a sucker for any kind of media that attempted to forecast what the future may be like. We do seem to be on the cusp of massive changes on this planet, but just what will they be?

Will it is be dystopia or utopia for humanity? Typically the future will probably be somewhere in-between these two extremes. When you pick up a book entitled A Brief History of the Future the expectation is that it will have at least some feasible answers. After all, according to the blurb on the back of the book Attali had previously predicted the financial rise of Asia, the advent of what he refers to as ‘nomadic technologies’ and the GFC. I approached this book with great enthusiasm, but unfortunately left it feeling underwhelmed and entertaining the thought that I would make a better futurist than the likes of Attali.Attali notes in his forward that the shape of our future is being set by events and choices that we are making in the present; therefore logically past events have always set the future in motion. With this in mind he then proceeds with a potted history of the past, including when life itself emerged from the oceans and that momentous time when our ancestors first began to walk upright.

This chapter reads like a highly generalized and accelerated version of prehistory, which unfortunately doesn’t give the reader much confidence in what will follow. There are also some glaring flaws, although they may well be caused by a fault in translation (Attali is French). Attali refers to the likes of Homo ergaster and Homo heidelbergensis (and others) as primates, when I’m certain the correct term is hominids. Also some assertions are already dated, with Attali claiming that “All these primates - neighbors but not of kin - coexist without interbreeding.” In recent years a great deal of evidence has emerged that interbreeding between some hominids was occurring.

These criticisms are perhaps unfair, however much more glaring is the total lack of referencing throughout this and the following chapter. Attali makes claim after claim regarding the lives and practices of early humans without citing any kind of reliable sources. Is it really “doubtless” that cannibalism began 300,000 years ago? And that around 160,000 years ago slavery began? What discoveries or research led to these notions? Are we just meant to take his word for it?

(like I ask you to take mine?).The long chapter entitled ‘A Brief History of Capitalism’ is far more coherent and persuasive, despite its lack of citations. Attali details the history of what he refers to as the mercantile order and suggests that as the mercantile order evolved over the centuries it fostered more and more individual freedoms and therefore became an engine of democracy. Attali’s principal argument focuses on the nine ‘cores’ of the mercantile order that have been at the forefront of capitalism over the centuries - Bruges, Venice, Genoa, Antwerp, Amsterdam, London, Boston, New York and currently Los Angeles. This long chapter leads to, almost inevitably, a chapter entitled ‘The End of the American Empire’. Logically the evolution of capitalism over the centuries points to an inevitable decline in the dominant core, something that has happened again and again; mostly caused by internal dysfunctions, mainly financial, and challenges from the outside.

Attali’s arguments are persuasive simply because it is all too easy to see past trends emerge again. He argues that as soon as post 2030 the “ninth form will have lived its day” and that America could become a Scandinavian style social democracy or a dictatorship.

Well, we’ll see!As to what comes next Attali points to three possible ‘waves of the future’ for this century: planetary empire, planetary war and planetary democracy. While it is too complex to adequately sum up how and why each wave could be possible there are a number of key points for each worth noting.

Planetary empire involves a possible decoupling of the mercantile order from a central city core, becoming a roaming entity mostly via the borderless world wide web. Planetary war all too ominously involves multiple scenarios ranging from endless minor conflicts to all out war involving what he calls ‘pirate’ entities taking it up to the major powers. ISIS is certainly shaping up to be such an entity. Planetary democracy is, rather optimistically, the inevitable endgame for the century. While some of his arguments for this third wave are sound, some are also are also dubious. Attali cites the emergence of ‘vanguard players’, or ‘trans-humans’; altruistic citizens that will “.run relational enterprises in which profit will be no more than a hindrance, not a final goal.” The cynic in me can’t help but consider that this viewpoint is naively Utopian and that humanity will not be able to curb its self destructive impulses.A Brief History of the Future is a moderately interesting book with some compelling ideas.

Ultimately, however, the book is flawed, particularly the chapters that deal with the future, which simply make too many assumptions. It’s a tough business this futurism, but in a strange way Attali makes it appear that anyone with some understanding of history and capitalism could give it a go.

I’m certainly ready and willing. I have a reasonable knowledge of emergent technologies and have a pretty good understanding of history and current events. Hey - I’m a futurist! Personally I believe that certain emergent technologies could completely alter society and what it is to be human, even more so than current computer technology coupled with the internet. If genuine AI technology is developed, possibly coupled with quantum computing, then that would be a huge game changer. If longevity drugs, now entering an exciting research and development phase, come to fruition, then society and the economy will be challenged with significant changes that have never been seen before.

These three technologies (five actually - but don’t get me started on robotics and 3D printing) were touched on only briefly by Attali, leaving me to think that his vision of the future is only part of the possible story at best. The author must have been a social engineer or being part of the people in the know.

Jacques Attali Breve Historia Del Futuro Pdf Gratis

Giving the fact that the book was written in 2006, and some of his prophecies have come to past (immigrants crisis), some of his predictions have yet to happen. It is understandable since he was heading international organizations (like European Bank for Reconstruction and Development ), his social theory prospects that he might have a better insight into the macro societal trends. His predictions might not The author must have been a social engineer or being part of the people in the know. Giving the fact that the book was written in 2006, and some of his prophecies have come to past (immigrants crisis), some of his predictions have yet to happen. It is understandable since he was heading international organizations (like European Bank for Reconstruction and Development ), his social theory prospects that he might have a better insight into the macro societal trends.

His predictions might not come to past, but it a stimulating read nonetheless. It gives you hints about what to expect, to not be taken by surprise, but if you have been studying geopolitics and societal trends from other sources it's nothing new. The first portion of this book covers the historic rise and fall of previous economic empires.

To be honest, it does not start out promising. Perhaps it was due to the fact that I knew most of the information already. At least it was a nice refresher on the past.However, the author uses this beginning to offer a base for his theory.

As in all of the future books, the information presented is a best guess of what may happen. The only problem here is that I have, after reading hundreds of current The first portion of this book covers the historic rise and fall of previous economic empires. To be honest, it does not start out promising. Perhaps it was due to the fact that I knew most of the information already. At least it was a nice refresher on the past.However, the author uses this beginning to offer a base for his theory.

As in all of the future books, the information presented is a best guess of what may happen. The only problem here is that I have, after reading hundreds of current event and historical books, I have come to a similar conclusion as the author. The viewpoint presented is a bleak future with hope existing only in the distant future, which lies beyond our life expectancy.

Of course, every generation thinks it will be the last. And it is easier to focus on the negative.While I agree with said I agree with many of the conclusions, I have to say that these would fall into my worst case scenario. I think anyone who reads this should look at the book in the same fashion. People either tend to be overly optimistic, or continually negative. Reality tends to fall somewhere in between. A book which captures the evolution of the market city cultures, from its beginning to its possible future state.

I found the argument very convincing as Jacques paints a picture based on core values aligning together to create powerfully and manipulative cultures which have dominated the world at various times. Currently Los Angles is the market leader but it's time at the top is long overdue for another culture to take its place. Jacques can see some of the values receding in Los Angles and A book which captures the evolution of the market city cultures, from its beginning to its possible future state.

I found the argument very convincing as Jacques paints a picture based on core values aligning together to create powerfully and manipulative cultures which have dominated the world at various times. Currently Los Angles is the market leader but it's time at the top is long overdue for another culture to take its place. Jacques can see some of the values receding in Los Angles and predicts its fall soon enough. Jacques lists a number of candidate cities which could take its place but does not seem to decide on one. Although his analysis of political history is very engaging, his predictions are too academic, too rambling for my liking.Nevertheless the book makes some very interesting observations which entirely relevant.

A great overview of the trends of history since homo sapiens became the dominant primate species, especially economic history. Attali continues following the wave to the end of the 21st century, yet manages to personalize by naming some of the transhumans whom he believes will help the species survive and evolve. I recognized myself as one of the sedentaries (vs. A nomad) he describes. I wonder if the Wall Street types respect his views of the market shifts or if they think he's a New Age nut. A great overview of the trends of history since homo sapiens became the dominant primate species, especially economic history. Attali continues following the wave to the end of the 21st century, yet manages to personalize by naming some of the transhumans whom he believes will help the species survive and evolve.

I recognized myself as one of the sedentaries (vs. A nomad) he describes.

I wonder if the Wall Street types respect his views of the market shifts or if they think he's a New Age nut. Made me glad I don't have kids. One will probably never think about the future the same way again after reading this book. That is neither a good thing or a bad thing - the point being that each one of us has a preconceived notion about what the future looks like, and this book challenges one to think hard about those preconceptions and their foundations in our past and what we've accepted and rejected - and most importantly, why we've accepted or rejected certain notions.This book has a strong likelihood of making the reader One will probably never think about the future the same way again after reading this book.

That is neither a good thing or a bad thing - the point being that each one of us has a preconceived notion about what the future looks like, and this book challenges one to think hard about those preconceptions and their foundations in our past and what we've accepted and rejected - and most importantly, why we've accepted or rejected certain notions.This book has a strong likelihood of making the reader uncomfortable. Maybe it’s time to get uncomfortable?